Why are weather forecasts sometimes wrong?

[Miloslav Tlamicha]

Forecasts can be occasionally wrong. This can have several causes:

1. Difficult and very changeable weather conditions: with a sharp climatic boundary between adjacent areas. In such weather conditions, forecast differences of 50-100 km will affect massively the quality, since the predicted temperatures and precipitation will often occur within only a few kilometers of the selected location. Very small-scale differences in the mountains or along coastlines can cause very small-scale differences, which can not be reproduced even by a good weather calculation.
2. Missing or wrong observations: the observations are used to initialize the calculations, and an incomplete initialization may produce misleading results.
3. Faulty weather calculations: such errors can occasionally occur in weather models, and can be resolved with the help of repeated and detailed observation, and detailed user feedback.
4. Erroneous measurements: unfortunately faulty measurements are not uncommon, and deceive the observer about the actual conditions, suggesting that a correct forecast is wrong.

[sebastian tajtaj]

Hello, and I apologize if this isn't the right place to ask this question.
Where I live, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia, the map and cross-section often show the asterisk (*) symbol for convective clouds, even though I frequently observe stratus clouds. How do you determine that there are convective clouds and not another type of cloud?
For example, today Meteoblue says there are convective clouds, but the reality is that there are stratus clouds.