recent accuracy in wind and trajectory predictions compared to Windy
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Hello everybody, I am a commercial hot air balloon pilot currently working for my second season in Denmark. I have always been a proud Advokat for Meteoblue and a subscriber to point+. But during the past 6 weeks Meteoblue has really disappointed me - both in terms of wind speed but also direction and trajectories. on several occasions it was out by 90 degrees and quite a few knots over the predicted wind speed. Windy whilst not being that much more accurate but on their trajectories, they won! I am curious if others had noticed similar and what Meteoblue has to say to this?
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Hello, and thank you very much for your detailed feedback.
First of all, we would like to sincerely apologize for the inconvenience this has caused you. We know how important accurate wind data is for your work.
Despite all the progress that has been made, weather models are not perfect. This is due, among other things, to the fact that observational data is never complete and some physical processes in the atmosphere can only be calculated approximately. These limitations reflect the fundamental nature of the atmosphere.Wind is simply much more difficult to predict than temperature. It is strongly influenced by local factors such as terrain, local wind conditions, and buildings, so even small local influences can lead to significant deviations.
In addition, our forecasts are not based on just one model. We combine several different weather models (NWP models), each of which has its own strengths and uncertainties. This generally makes the forecasts more reliable overall, but it can also lead to larger local deviations in wind speed and direction when the models do not fully agree.
The availability of real-time data also plays a role. If wind data from a station is temporarily missing, our system automatically switches to the nearest available station, which sometimes provides only temperature data but not wind data. This can affect the accuracy for that specific location.
Thank you again for sharing your experiences with us so clearly.
Feedback from experienced users like you helps us continuously improve, especially for challenging use cases such as hot-air ballooning.We hope to continue earning your trust and wish you safe flights and calm winds over Denmark.
