Forecast model comparison - which one is the most reliable?
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We recently published a two-part deep-dive into how numerical weather prediction models actually work - from how the atmosphere is divided into a 3D grid and simulated step by step, to how global models differ from each other and why ensemble forecasting exists.
👉 Part 1: Understanding NWP Systems
👉 Part 2: Inside Today's Forecasting Systems
What you might not know is that meteoblue runs its own model families - NMM (operational since 2007, optimised for complex terrain) and NEMS (the newer generation since 2013, with improved cloud and precipitation forecasting) - alongside data from ECMWF, GFS, ICON, UKMO, and a dozen others. You can compare them all side by side in our MultiModel view.
A few questions for the community:
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Which model do you follow most closely for your region, and has one ever clearly outperformed the others during a major event?
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For those in complex terrain (Alps, Balkans, Scandinavia) - do you find high-resolution regional models noticeably better than global ones?
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What's your take on AI models like ECMWF's AIFS entering the picture - genuine step forward or still unproven?
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Hello. Thank you for your excellent site for your good forecasts. I had a suggestion. On the weather site metelogix.com there are charts for predicting the probability of precipitation above 0.1mm, above 1mm and above 10mm, which gives the user a better understanding of the possible amount of precipitation. If possible, include this function in your forecasts. Many thanks
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My Trust in Weather Models for the North/Baltic Sea Region
For my region along the North and Baltic Seas, I primarily rely on the ICON-D2 model. It offers the highest resolution and is particularly well-suited for local weather conditions—perfect for accurate forecasts along our coasts. If I need to look further ahead or consider areas outside the ICON-D2 coverage, I turn to ICON-EU, which is also highly reliable.
An interesting alternative is Meteoblue AI, which performs very well in many situations. However, I still prefer the ICON models as my go-to choice and compare them with Meteoblue AI when needed to get an even better picture.
What are your experiences with these models? Are there any others you particularly trust in our region?
